Something Old On Young

Topsy-turvy is a sound way to describe the last 12 months of Michael Young’s career. After hitting .284/.330/.444 in 2010, the Rangers signed Adrian Beltre and acquired Mike Napoli, thereby squeezing Young’s role. Young then complained and—depending on whom you believe—asked for a trade; a wish that the Rangers came close to fulfilling with the Rockies. In the end, no trade occurred and Young made amends by hitting .338/.380/.474 while playing in 159 games across four defensive positions.

Why is any of this relevant? Because an improvement in performance sometimes means an alteration in player’s underlying aspects. One of my thoughts heading into the Rangers-Rays series last October was to treat Young like Derek Jeter and shift him to hit a certain way. The batted ball data backed up the idea then, as I wrote:

So, how do you combat that? Shade the right fielder towards the right foul line, move B.J. Upton into right-center, and ask Carl Crawford to cover whatever is left between left and left center field.

Replace Crawford’s name with Desmond Jennings and the same gist is in place, or at least should be if Young’s batted ball profile has remained static. Here is a look at his flyball and groundball numbers since 2008, courtesy of FanGraphs:

FB%	LF	CF	RF
2011	12	23.4	43.4
2010	12.9	31.1	53.2
2009	13.7	31.1	51
2008	10.3	23.6	48.9
GB%	LF	CF	RF
2011	74.1	46.7	23.6
2010	75.7	53.9	23.1
2009	69.5	45.8	22.1
2008	72.1	56.2	22

As you can see, Young tends to hit groundballs to left and center fields while putting the ball in the air to right field. The monkey wrench in shifting Jennings too far towards center field and giving Young an automatic double, perhaps more, if he hits a ball into no man’s land in left field. Some of that potential is minimized by the speed of Jennings and range of Longoria, but all the great defense in the world sometimes cannot expunge good hitting.

Another aspect to consider is the game theory involved. It is unquantifiable, but if Young notices the defensive alignment shifting on him, he could become more likely to look for a pitch on the inside corner to pull. At the same time, he could become more likely to look away, suspecting that the Rays would never risk burning themselves with shoddy pitch selection. The danger present is that Young guesses right, but how is that any different than any other at-bat?

Wade & Johnson v. The Process

For the Tampa Bay Rays, Cory Wade was the one that got away. Cory Wade was the one who slipped through the process. Yet, it was Cory Wade who help save the Tampa Bay Rays season.

The decision to keep Andy Sonnnastine and release Cory Wade in June is still an example of a smart team exhibiting a bad process. Meanwhile, for at least one historic night, the result bested the process. Trailing by one run with two outs and no men on base, the Rays had a 4.2% chance of winning against the New York Yankees. With the team needing a miracle, Rays’ manager Joe Maddon called upon the miracle maker on his bench.

After hitting memorable home runs as a reserve with the Rays, Dan Johnson entered the season as the team’s primary first baseman. Johnson responded by hitting .115/.179/.167 in his first 84 plate appearances. Perhaps with a larger sample size, Johnson would have righted the ship and have a production season; however, Johnson’s slide coincided with the beginning of Casey Kotchman’s magical season. In mid-May, the then reigning International League Most Valueable Player was back in Triple-A playing for the Durham Bulls.

Cory Wade was also a member of the 2011 Durham Bulls. Unlike Johnson, Wade started the season in the minors and earned his way to the major leagues; albeit as a member of the New York Yankees. Coming into play Wednesday, Wade was 6-1 with a 1.85 ERA/3.44 FIP/3.75 xFIP in 39 appearances. A non-roster invitee in spring training, Wade earned 0.5 WAR in 39 innings of middle relief work.

Part of Wade’s value to the Yankees is effectiveness against left-handed batters. Yes, he
has allowed four home runs to lefties in a small sample size this season; however, he has handled his own against the platoon split in his career. A large part of that is due to his changeup.

According to Joe Lefkowitz’s database, Wade threw a changeup to a lefty 41% of the time before his final regular season appearance. Of the left-handed swings attempted on his changeup, 32.8% came up empty. Even when the changeup was put it play, it was usually on the ground with minimal damage. Keyword is usually.

Former minor-league teammates in the Tampa Bay system, Johnson and Wade would face off with the Rays big-league season on the line. For Wade, the appearance was about getting one more outing in before the postseason. For Johnson, it was perhaps the last major-league at-bat he would see for the foreseeable future.

After falling behind 1-2 in the count, the left-handed Johnson took Wade’s changeup for ball two. Johnson fouled off a four-seam fastball to extend Tampa Bay’s season for at least one more pitch. On the sixth pitch of the plate appearance, Wade went for the kill with another changeup. Good process, poor execution, bad result. Wade hung the 83 mph offering over the middle of the plate. With a flick of the wrist, Johnson wrapped the pitch just inside the right field foul pole to tie the game. The rest is history.

Looking ahead to the playoffs, Cory Wade will be on the Yankees’ postseason roster. Barring injury, Johnson will not experience the playoffs as an active member of the Rays’ roster. In this sense, the process will overcome; however, for one night the result was undeniable.

The Playoff Run

When the Rays were trying to claw back into the race, Tommy made a joke about bringing TPR back if they made the postseason. It was a joke in the “when pigs fly” sense, but after last night, how could we not? You have to cherish any postseason opportunity your favorite team gets, so from now until the season ends, we’re back—just consider TPR a backronym for The Playoff Run.

There is something just so right about Evan Longoria and Dan Johnson taking turns playing hero as the Rays teetered between playoff elimination and berth. The contrast is beautiful and writes itself. Longoria is a golden child, Johnson a non-entity. Longoria is the guy you want up with the game—the season—on the line, but Johnson is the guy who seems to be thrust into these situations whenever the Rays are destined to make the playoffs. You can go on and on and on. You can call this the Extra Two Percent—the perfect example of how the Rays operate in order to win an unfair game—and nobody would fight you. You can also say that sometimes, the best times, baseball is sweet.

Adam Sobsey scorched the Johnson earth with his stellar piece, but Johnson’s story is worth rehashing. Everyone knows about the clutch home runs and about the dismal play earlier in 2011, but keep in mind: the Rays have placed him on waivers four times throughout his career. Tampa Bay claimed him after Oakland designated him for assignment in 2008, and the very next day—after Johnson spent the night in Orlando with the rest of the club—they then designated him for assignment. After the season, he had to pass through waivers in order to sign with a Japanese team. He returned stateside in 2010 with a major league contract and again was passed through waivers in order to hit the minor leagues. Then earlier this season, after struggling, the Rays again went through the waiver process with Johnson.

Four times any other team in baseball could have claimed Johnson and none did. It’s not because he is an utterly undesirable ballplayer—entering this season his career OPS+ was 103, which isn’t great from a first baseman, but you can do far worse—but for whatever reasons teams decided they weren’t going to claim him. This season, it was in part because of his failures and his $1 million salary. In fact, that salary may have saved the Rays from losing Johnson in another way too, as he could have opted for free agency and found another organization, one willing to give him a longer leash, but in doing so would have forgone the remainder of that million bucks—an impossible sum for a fringe player.

One of those sins of following a team like the Rays is falling victim to appealing to authority on every move, but gosh they’re good. The guy Johnson hit the home run off, Cory Wade, is a fellow I liked when the Rays signed him this offseason. He opted out and they didn’t stop him despite having a human mothball in the bullpen at the time. Wade went on to throw 39 2/3 innings pitched for the Yankees with a 2.04 earned run average, but he also served up a season-saving home run, so that decision looks considerably more tolerable now. Signing Casey Kotchman and giving him the first base job a month into the season was a decision I strongly disliked—and I had history on my side here—so naturally Kotchman led the Rays in infield hits and finished with the 12th-best Wins Above Replacement Player amongst first basemen. The Rays signed Manny Ramirez, who then retired, and replaced him in the lineup with Sam Fuld instead of Desmond Jennings. Of course, Fuld then became a bugbear and a legend with his play over the next few weeks.

And so on and so forth. The point is: The Rays are not infallible. They’ve made mistakes, but somehow, someway, they seem to come out ahead when it appears they messed up. Is it luck? Yeah, probably, but Andrew Friedman might have made a deal with the devil and ripped him off in the process too. How else can you explain the Royals and Rockies both passing on the best college hitter in the 2006 draft for a pair of pitchers who were not necessarily considered the best college arms. The Rays were so resigned to the idea that Longoria would become a member of the Rockies that they had a pre-draft deal in place with Tim Lincecum instead.

Divine intervention makes for a nice reasoning on how the Rays were able to sign Longoria to what became one of the best contracts in baseball, but had the potential to blow up in their faces given how little time Longoria had seen in the majors. How else do you explain how Longoria has changed the fate of the franchise during his four major league seasons? This is the Longoria who, while being driven to the stadium to sign his first professional contract in 2006, nearly caused a staffer wreck his car by asking him when the Rays had last made the postseason. He was ignorant of the Rays history then, and now he is the Rays history.

When people remember this season, they should remember Longoria because his 2011 is the classic redemption tale that people love. People forget, but Longoria’s 2011 season began with controversy after his spring training apartment was robbed and a gun was found. He then exited the second game of the season with a sprained oblique and missed the rest of April. Yet, he came back and hit 31 home runs. Ever a protean actor, he showed off his defensive ability over and over again, building a highlight reel from September plays alone. The diving grab that he turned into a double play by landing with his glove on the third base bag in Boston, the triple play he started against New York due to his cocksure attitude when it comes to throwing to second, the diving stop last night, and so on.

I was reminded once more of what James Shields said last year after the Rays fell behind 2-0 in the Divisional Series, “We got to fight our way back. We’ve been fighters ever since ’08 when we started turning this organization around so it’s time to go.” The scrub and the star fought back. They don’t build statues for Dan Johnsons, they build plaques for Evan Longorias. Last night, though, those two built a moment that will live with us forever.

Here’s to 11 more moments in 2011.

The End

When we started this site about a year ago, the thought was it would be an outlet for ideas, but not something we updated frequently. It became the latter, and recently it’s become a bit of a burden. Everyone on staff has other obligations, and those often take precedent over writing. So, as of tonight, we’re going to close the doors here, because sometimes you just have to admit something isn’t worth continuing, and right now, it’s difficult to justify keeping this place active.

I’d like to personally thank everyone who read the site or worked on it—Josh Frank and the writers in particular, as they did much work for too little reward. I’d guess you might see a writer or two from here pop up elsewhere, but otherwise, feel free to follow the staff on Twitter. I believe Tommy will continue to do his ESPN 1040 assignments, and Chris along with myself can be found at Baseball Prospectus.

Otherwise, we’ve had fun. Hopefully you did too.

Futures Game Impressions

Matt Moore

The headliner, Moore pitched the fourth inning for the USA team. The pregame chatter seemed to revolve around Moore, as Jerry Crasnick unleashed a few tweets about him. First quoting a scout who said Moore’s stuff is “tremendous”, and then another who said the Rays will have the best rotation within two years. That’s high praise, and for a pitcher to get so much attention in a game that features Bryce Harper, Wil Myers, Manny Machado, and countless others is saying something.

Moore didn’t hurt his hype by stepping onto the mound. There is no surer way for a pitcher to up his Q rating than by hitting 100 miles per hour in a televised showcase, and here Moore recorded high velocities throughout his brief outing. The TV gun, which was a mile per hour or two faster than the PITCHf/x readings, had his velocities at 95, 99, 100, 88, 98, 97, 87, 89, 99, 98, and 99 miles per hour.

Pre-delivery, Moore stands in a way that reminds me of James Shields. Any comparison there falls apart after he starts his delivery, as it’s a bit complex, with his arms extending upwards before he removes the ball and fires it in, with easy velocity. Some reports have suggested Moore has trouble repeating his delivery, which causes some of his wildness, and it’s possible he has smoothed it over some since last season. Moore’s body isn’t that of a string bean, and despite only being 6-foot-2, his build looks of someone who can be a durable starter.

Future Game performances don’t mean much, but in about five minutes of work, Moore showed enough to spark some crushes. Heck, Jim Callis even said his raw stuff is better than David Price.

Daily Process: Rays Drop Series, First Half Ends

Entering this game, CC Sabathia had 2.90 earned run average and 2.57 FIP, while James Shields had a 2.47 earned run average and 3.07 FIP. The pair didn’t disappoint, as they combined for 17 innings pitched and one run.

Shields pitched wonderfully against the team with the third-most runs scored in the league and the second-highest OPS in baseball. Sure, Alex Rodriguez nor Nick Swisher weren’t in the lineup, but it’s still the Yankees and it’s still within Yankee Stadium. Going eight innings and allowing only one run against them should be enough to win most games, but today it wasn’t, as Shields did make one mistake, and it had nothing to do with a poorly located fastball or hanging curveball.

In the seventh, Robinson Cano reached on a leadoff single. Jorge Posada hit a ball to center that B.J. Upton charged and fielded, with Cano retreating to first, Upton slang the ball towards first, but threw beyond the playing field, netting Cano two bases, and giving the Yankees one of their few scoring opportunities. After Russell Martin grounded out to third, and Sean Rodriguez held Cano, Shields would try to hook up with Rodriguez on a backdoor pickoff attempt, but Shields threw the ball over Rodriguez’s head, allowing Cano to easily score. That was all the scoring.

Some are going to question the pickoff itself, but Shields had Cano dead to rights, he simply didn’t execute. Others will point to Upton’s throw. Indeed, the upside—getting Cano out—pales in comparison to the downside—Cano trotting into third. Elliot Johnson survived a similar play earlier in the game, when he took an Eduardo Nunez ball deep in the hole and attempted to—for lack of a batter verb—Jeter it. Sometimes, trying too hard is just as bad as not trying hard enough. Upton, like Johnson and Shields, tried to do too much on the play, and it wound up burning him, just like it burned Shields.
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Offensively, credit Sabathia. There is a reason he is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and this Rays lineup, even loaded down with righties, had no hope. The Rays had a runner beyond first base twice all day: Johnson in the first inning and Rodriguez in the second. Rodriguez would be thrown attempting to steal third, and the Rays would make two other outs on the paths, both by Upton (once trying to steal, and another on a hit-and-run that netted a line out and throw out). Because of that Upton is going to take some heat, and he should for the mistakes, but at the same time, he should be given credit for throwing out Nunez at the plate earlier in the game.
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The one big issue I have with Joe Maddon’s management today is refusing to pinch-hit for Johnson in the ninth. Admittedly, I do not like Johnson batting second to begin with (although he has hit .256/.385/.302 off lefties prior to this game, it felt like a decision made in order to set up a sacrifice bunt, and that isn’t how you should build a lineup). Johnson did have a double, but in the ninth inning, with two outs, against Sabathia, I’d much rather take my chances with Matt Joyce or Johnny Damon, neither of whom entered the game.

That’s a do or die situation, and while die is the most likely outcome, in that spot, I’m rolling with the best hitter. I don’t believe Johnson was the best hitter available.
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After the game, Brandon Guyer was demoted. I fear I don’t have a good explanation. The guy who Guyer figures to eventually displace from the roster is Justin Ruggiano. It’s a matter of time, more or less, but I don’t know why the time isn’t right now. Assuming the service times rules haven’t changed, or aren’t about to radically change, then Guyer should be in the clear from Super Two status. At age 25, the Rays already will have him under team control through his late-20s, so there’s nothing there either.

There is a fine line between appealing to authority and pleading ignorance, but they go hand in hand when it comes to evaluating prospects and promotions. Matt Moore looks like someone who could easily ascend to Triple-A, but maybe the Rays want him to get a better grasp of his changeup before sending him up the rung. Stats can tell you a little of that story, but not all of it. With Guyer, his plate approach needs some work. Still, you have to wonder how much additional work he can and will put in when he is hitting .318/.389/.509 with 33 extra-base hits in 78 games.

Guyer, like Desmond Jennings before his injury (he broke a finger and will miss two weeks), appear to be ready when it comes to service time and statistics. Jennings is nearing 900 Triple-A plate appearances and was even on the playoff roster last season. If he isn’t ready by now, then his ability to hide flaws in his game is incredible. But again, I am ignorant about most of the prospects play, and can only rely on scouting reports, stats, and second-hand information. With his injury, Jennings will safely be under the Super Two date by the time he returns. My guess is that they just want to maximize his time in center, and that means waiting until they trade Upton. Until then, the Rays seem content rolling with Ruggiano as their right-handed corner outfielder of choice.

I assume there is a reason for every move. Lately, though, I’m having a hard time discovering them. Why Andy Sonnanstine was around all season without a real reason other than loss aversion mystifies me, and how the Rays chose to keep Sonnanstine in the majors, and on the 40-man roster, instead of Cory Wade is a little infuriating—although let’s be honest, that’s only because he signed with the Yankees, otherwise I wouldn’t really care. They’ve taught us how to think and approach moves, and with the Wade stuff, you sort of wonder what happened to screwing the system whenever possible. This organization has gotten to where it is because it milks the living daylights out of loopholes and margins. When I look at Ruggiano, I see no udders.

Entering Sunday, Ruggiano was hitting .276/.300/.474. He last drew a walk on May 30, giving him more than 70 plate appearances since, and in that span, he has a line of .290/,.286/.464. The power is nice, but even then, Guyer should be able to top that, even with a flawed approach at the plate. I think my biggest fear is that the Rays are keeping Guyer—and to an extent Jennings— down because they feel neither can play in the majors to a satisfactory level right now. If that is the case, and I have no idea if it is, then go ahead and forget about the playoff hopes. Because barring Andrew Friedman shaking the cosmos with a few trades, this team just isn’t good enough to beat out Boston or New York over 162 games.

I don’t know what’s going to happen over the next few weeks. I still think the team should approach every opportunity with an open mind and free of a buyer or seller label. Whether that ambiguous approach will yield a move is anyone’s guess. I can understand if they do nothing, because hey, trying too hard is just as bad as not trying hard enough.
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Between now and the first pitch of the Boston series, I am going to enjoy two things:

1) Knowing Ron Washington has no authority over James Shields’ and David Price’s respective throwing arms.

2) Watching the Futures Game tonight as Tim Beckham, Matt Moore, and Hak-Ju Lee are on full display.

We have a half of baseball left in 2011, and while it’s infuriating at times, it’s better than nothing. The Rays are going to wrap their fourth-straight winning season in a matter of months, and almost nobody is happy. Isn’t it great?

Report: Rays Interested in Heath Bell

From Nick Cafardo:

According to one major league source, the Rays are also interested, and able to offer a good package of young players. But the Rays have to determine over the next two weeks whether they have enough firepower to seriously compete with the Red Sox and Yankees for a playoff spot.

This is not the first time the Rays and Heath Bell have met. Bell was originally drafted by the Rays in 1997 (in the 69th round, much to the enjoyment of the DRaysBay community), and Jason Collette heard whispers about a potential deal for him prior to the 2010 season.

Cafardo concludes that the Rays need to figure out whether they can realistically compete with the Yankees and Red Sox this season, and I think the answer is probably not. However, acquiring Bell still makes some traces of sense because of his Type A designation, which would fetch two draft picks at season’s end, should that form of compensation still exist. Trading for the purpose of acquiring more draft picks isn’t the sexiest of thoughts for those who want to win now, but Bell can help appease the short- and long-term lust for victory and talent in one swoop.

To get a good talent like Bell you have to give up something. Jed Hoyer is the Padres general manager and he came over from Boston. I don’t need to connect the dots here, but I will anyway: Hoyer knows the game and knows how to hustle just like any new or old era general manager. He isn’t slack-jawed and I don’t think he gets ripped off in any trade, so the rosterbation needs to start at fair value. The definitions of fair value can vary based on evaluation methods, team complexions, and payroll limitations, so it’s hard to say just what that might be for the Padres.

For that reason, I won’t speculate too much. I doubt a deal is consummated, as in the end, giving away future wins for present wins when it’s a reliever might not make the most sense for this Rays team, but who knows.