Here is some bad news concerning B.J. Upton’s trade value, courtesy of the Cincinnati Enquirer:
One Reds insider said a straight-up [Logan] Ondrusek-for-[Shane] Victorino deal was nixed by The Club. Would you have done that?
Upton and Victorino are similar players across the board. Both are free-agent-to-center fielders experiencing down seasons. Victorino has the edge in OPS+ since 2010 by a point, though adjusting for league should favor Upton. You can make the argument for either to be acknowledged as the better player, and so it’s safe to say they’re close to even. Hence why this rumor is disheartening: if a team isn’t willing to acquire Victorino when the price is a reliever, then what are the odds Upton would bring back much more?
Misinformation is the currency of the trade deadline. Still, it’s worthwhile to regress your expectations for what a trade of Upton—or any other Rays player—will yield.